Dynamic implications of patenting for crop genetic resources:

In a climate of rapid technological change, it is important to evaluate policies on the innovation incentives that result from the introduction of intellectual property rights as they relate to agricultural genetic resources. In this paper, we use a stylized model of cumulative innovation to explore the dynamics of introducing patent protection with licensing agreements, and then we contrast those results with the comparative-statics viewpoint. We also investigate the dynamic effects of claims on behalf of farmers on the profits of private crop breeders whose output is newly protected by patents. We show that the choices about patent life and licensing share that optimize worldwide dynamic social welfare can be quite different from the values that maximize steady-state social welfare. Further, recognition of farmers' rights entails a dynamic welfare loss to producers and consumers that is not revealed in a comparative-statics analysis.Plant breeding Technological innovations., Plant genetic engineering Economic aspects., Intellectual property.,

The timing of evaluation of genebank accessions and the effects of biotechnology:

The lack of ex-ante evaluation of germplasm in genebanks has been the single most prevalent and long-standing complaint of plant breeders about the management of genebanks. Advances in biotechnology offer the possibility of faster, cheaper, and more efficient evaluation methodologies. Will these new technologies favor ex-post evaluation, as some expect, or will it lead to more ex-ante evaluation? Will it also lead to earlier development of varieties with disease resistance traits in anticipation of actual infestations? Will the prospect of further advances in biotechnology favor delay of evaluation and development? This paper addresses these questions in the case of evaluation of germplasm for resistance to a disease.Gene banks, Plant., Biotechnology.,

Economics of patenting a research tool: participation and productivity

When a new technology consists of sequences of innovations that culminate in a final consumer product, the balance between successive innovators is one of the main concerns in the design of the patent system. While intertemporal aspects of incentive are critical in this environment of sequential innovations, time plays a minor role in existing literature on dynamic models. By focusing on the incentives of follow-on innovators who commercialize an initial invention, this study examines the dynamic implications of the patent instrument (e.g., patent life) via a positive analysis. It shows that a long patent life may encourage innovation incentives and increase social welfare, contrary to existing arguments that argue that long patent life always discourages the incentive for subsequent innovations. This study also examines the implications of finite patent system in different market structures.Patents Economic aspects., Research Technological innovations., Licensing Agreements.,

An Economic Analysis of Corn-based Ethanol Production

A global multi-commodity simulation model was developed to estimate the impact of changes in ethanol production on the U.S. corn industry. Increased ethanol production under the Energy Acts of 2005 and 2007 resulted in a significant increase in the price of corn. However, for corn-based ethanol production, the break-even price of corn is approximately $4.52 per bushel with a federal subsidy of$0.51 per gallon of pure ethanol and $2.50 gasoline. With a corn price of$4.52, the economically desirable ethanol production is approximately 11 billion gallons. In order to produce 15 billion gallons of corn-based ethanol and to maintain the price of corn at $4.52 per bushel, supply of corn in the U.S. should be increased substantially through increases in corn yield rather than increases in corn acres. The increased price of corn leads to major structural changes in the corn industry in the United States as well as other corn producing and consuming countries. Corn production would increase in response to higher price levels, corn used for livestock feed may decrease, and U.S. exports decrease due mainly to a surge in corn used for ethanol production. This decrease in U.S. exports should be met by additional production in other countries. The increased price of corn also leads to increases in the prices of soybeans, wheat, high fructose corn syrup (HFCS), and agricultural inputs, such as land value and cash rent, fertilizer and chemicals, and farm equipment. In addition, the current price of corn has resulted in an increase in the production cost of livestock. The increase in prices of agricultural commodities and inputs would cause increases in retail prices of food in the U.S.ethanol, price impacts, supply, demand, econometric simulation, HFCS, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

2005 OUTLOOK OF THE U.S. AND WORLD SUGAR MARKETS, 2004-2013

This report evaluates the U.S. and world sugar markets for 2004-2013 using the Global Sugar Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, population growth, weather conditions, and technological changes. Both the U.S. and world sugar economies are predicted to improve slightly over the next nine years after the current over-supply is reduced. World demand for sugar is expected to grow faster than world supply, resulting in Caribbean sugar prices gradually increasing from 8.40 cents/lb in 2004 to 8.70 cents/lb in 2013. The U.S. wholesale price of sugar is projected to decrease from 26.15 cents/lb in 2004 to 24.89 cents/lb in 2013, if the United States maintains its sugar programs. The CAFTA agreement is expected to increase U.S. imports slightly, but with little impact on U.S. prices. It is projected that Mexico will be able to export 405 thousand metric tons of sugar to the United States by 2013. World trade volumes of sugar are expected to increase throughout the forecast period.Crop Production/Industries,

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF PRODUCING CARROTS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY

This report evaluates the U.S. carrot market using a quadratic programming algorithm. North Dakota ships carrots locally and to Minnesota under both the base and 1,000 acre scenarios. North Dakota starts to ship carrots to Illinois as it produces more under other alternative scenarios. This clearly indicates that North Dakota has a comparative advantage in producing carrots over other neighboring states. North Dakota could produce about 8,000 acres of carrots and market them to North Dakota, Minnesota, and Illinois. Additional production of carrots in North Dakota may not affect the national average price of carrots, but local prices may be affected due to regional competition.carrots, quadratic programming, North Dakota, Marketing, Production Economics,

1999 OUTLOOK OF THE U.S. AND WORLD SUGAR MARKETS

This report evaluates the U.S. and world sugar markets for 1998-2008 by using the World Sugar Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, population growth, weather conditions, and technological changes. Both the U.S. and world sugar economies are predicted to be strong for the next ten years. World demand for sugar is expected to grow faster than world supply, gradually increasing sugar prices. World trade volumes of sugar are expected to expand.Sugar, Production, Exports, Consumption, Ending Stocks, Agricultural and Food Policy, Marketing, International Relations/Trade,

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE FARMERS UNION FARM BILL PROPOSAL

The lack of a safety net for farm income in the FAIR Act has become evident in recent years because of the necessity of federal legislation each year, 1998-2001, to support farm income. In recent years, U.S. agriculture has experienced a rapid loss of mid-size family farms. The number of small-size farms has increased substantially and the number of large farms has increased slowly. The Farmers Union Farm Bill Proposal is a targeted plan which utilizes varying loan rates based on the USDA's full cost of production for program crops and a Farmer Owned Reserve (FOR). The proposed loan rates decrease as the value of the crop loans increase. The FOR is targeted towards a Limited Renewable Energy Reserve and a Humanitarian Assistance Reserve. The objectives of the study were to develop a distribution of farms in North Dakota by size and estimate the statewide government cost of the Farmers Union Proposal under the baseline and Farmers Union price scenario and compare it to the continuation of the FAIR Act.Farm Bill, Targeting, Government Agricultural Spending, North Dakota Representative Farms, Agricultural and Food Policy,

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE FARM BILL PROPOSALS

Various farm organizations and political parties are taking sides on whether the FAIR Act needs to be scraped or just modified. This study analyzes three such proposals: the U.S. House of Representatives proposal (H.R. 2646), the American Farm Bureau proposal, and the National Farmers Union proposal. The continuation of the FAIR Act is also included as an another alternative. The H.R. 2646 and the American Farm Bureau proposals are modifications of the FAIR Act while the National Farmers Union proposal is a totally redesigned bill. The H.R. 2646 and the Farm Bureau proposals are very similar in their results. They provide higher net farm income for the large size farm than the Farmers Union proposal does early in the forecast period, but the Farmers Union proposal provides higher net farm income in the last three years of the time period. The Farmers Union proposal provides higher net farm income for the medium and small size farm than either the H.R. 2646 or the Farm Bureau proposals because of the targeting feature. The FAIR Act provides less net farm income for all size farms than any other proposal.Farm Bill, Targeting, North Dakota Representative Farms, H.R. 2646, National Farmers Union, American Farm Bureau, Agricultural and Food Policy,

2011 Outlook of the U.S. and World Sugar Markets, 2010-2020

This report evaluates the U.S. and world sugar markets for 2010-2020 using the Global Sugar Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, population growth, weather conditions, and technological changes. Both the U.S. and world sugar economies are predicted to remain stable over the next ten years. Sugar prices were increased from 18.7 cents/ lb in 2009 to 27 cents/lb in 2010. World sugar production increased in 2010 along with consumption. Ending stocks did tighten in 2010. Ending stock projections by various organizations for 2011 were lower than previously estimated. World demand for sugar is expected to grow at a similar rate to world supply, resulting in Caribbean sugar prices remaining near the 16.0 -19.0 cents/lb range throughout the forecast period. The U.S. wholesale price of sugar is projected to remain in the 32 to 34 cents/lb range throughout the forecast period. It is projected that Mexico will be able to export 586 thousand metric tons of sugar to the United States by 2020. World trade volumes of sugar are expected to increase throughout the forecast period.sugar, production, exports, consumption, ending stocks, Agricultural and Food Policy, Marketing,